воскресенье, 8 июля 2012 г.
Cunningham and Olson devote some attention to NASA s commercial crew initiative, saying it diverts b
Rep. Pete Olson (R-TX) kept his statement Thursday about the end of the final shuttle hotels maui hawaii mission largely apolitical, thanking those who worked on the program and promising that it is by no means the end of human space flight . However, in an op-ed published Friday in POLITICO and co-authored by former astronaut Walt Cunningham, he is more pointed in his criticism of the administration s space policy . President Barack Obama shifted NASA policy away from human spaceflight, they write of the administration s move to cancel Constellation and support hotels maui hawaii development of commercial crew capabilities, adding hotels maui hawaii that NASA's plan for deep space exploration leaves them without a specific destination and timetable. Really, without a mission. (The administration has set some destinations and deadlines, including a human NEO mission by 2025 and Mars orbit by the mid-2030s, but these have been often criticized as vague or too far into the future.)
Cunningham and Olson devote some attention to NASA s commercial crew initiative, saying hotels maui hawaii it diverts billions of dollars to a group of companies hotels maui hawaii most devoid of experience in manned space vehicles . We don't believe that a private market capable of supporting a low-earth orbit system, independent hotels maui hawaii of government, exists in the near-term. If it did, it wouldn't need government support, they write, concluding that Space exploration is likely to continue to be a government-sponsored mission for the foreseeable future if the U.S. is to retain its preeminence in space.
While these criticisms of the agency s plans are hardly original, they do add something new. In coming weeks we, with others committed to the HSF [human spaceflight] program, will offer a more detailed plan to return to flight, they state. They don t disclose exactly when that plan will be released, but do offer some key elements of it:
Return to the earlier NASA model of success: Adopt best practices to reform contracting, foster better communication between centers, eliminate activities not essential for space exploration and clear away bureaucracy.
Assess the near-term potential and costs for commercial space companies to support both cargo and manned LEO missions to better understand the potential investment required by private investors, and the degree hotels maui hawaii it may free NASA resources to focus on the deep-space mission.
Return to the earlier NASA model of success: Adopt best practices to reform contracting, foster better communication between centers, hotels maui hawaii eliminate activities hotels maui hawaii not essential for space exploration and clear away bureaucracy.
The fact that NASA human space flight doesn t have a specific destination and timetable is precisely because it doesn t have a mission. It doesn t have a mission because there is little agreement on what is actually important for human space flight to accomplish. Is it about racing? Is it about science? Is it about species preservation? Is it about resource development? No, all of the above isn t credible rationale, because each of these are best done in different ways. Of course, this promising new plan is based on space exploration . As usual, the proponents don t have a clue about what that phrase really means.
The most interesting part of this plan will be where they spell out a coherent HSF mission . I have an open mind, but I suspect that this coherent mission will again just be to run the exploration word up the flagpole and watch it flap.
It occurs to me that the most potent form of exploration now being tested is the commercial gambit. That is, having commercial enterprise take a major role in defining space flight development. Basing this development on consumer interest is exciting and very new. Sure, it s risky, and it s hard, but there is some good chance that big rewards will follow, in terms of space access. It s a real challenge for our nation, of which these commercial ventures are very much a part. Much more so than putting boots back on the Moon. We have real leadership here. No one else can do this, really. We have a national tradition of entrepreneurship that China doesn t have. That entrepreneurship is in our genes a lot more than is putting feet on distant rocks. Yes, there is a government role here. That s in nurturing these explorers in the interest of national goals.
Pete certainly does have a good point that a lot of money is being given to companies to develop capabilities that we are simultaneously retiring. SpaceX in particular seems to have done well but does their business model work, or will they turn out to be another government contractor? Boeing hotels maui hawaii has long experience in this field but will they actually be able to sell to anyone except the government?
If we just wanted to retire the Shuttle and go fly on Atlas or Delta, we could have just declared that the plan and done it. Now we have operators that can come, and go, as Rocket Plane Kistler did. Have we actually changed or do we just claim to have?
He is not rejecting commercial space out of hand, only calling for a more realistic view of its prospects. One suspects that whatever plan arises will be the basis of a space policy for the next president.
Olson s statements hotels maui hawaii and plan are contradictory and incoherent. On one hand he states that he doesn t believe that a private market capable of supporting a low-earth orbit system exists . Then in his plan for a plan, he wants to Assess the near-term potential and costs for commercial space companies to support both cargo and manned LEO missions to better understand the potential investment required by private investors, and the degree it may free NASA resources to focus on the deep-space mission. So which is it? Does a market worth examining and leveraging exist or not?
It s also hard to see how Olson s plan for a plan differs hotels maui hawaii from the Administration s plan in any significant way. In addition to pursuing commercial cargo and crew, Olson wants to set goal [sic] and timeline for the next 20 years , incluidng manned missions to the Moon, and then Mars . The President has explicitly set a Mars goal 20 years out, and the Augustine Committee option on which the Administration s plan is based had human lunar missions. So, even setting aside Olson s incoherency, what exactly would we get with Olson s plan for a plan that we re not getting with the Administration s plan? What exactly is Olson proposing that s different? Or is he just using empty rhetoric to look strong to voters back home?
The plan since Bush/Griffin hotels maui hawaii FY2006 has been to get Commercial Crew going, but Griffin and Congress never pushed it. Griffin got Commercial Cargo going, so I give him credit for that, but he did nothing for crew.
Actually relatively hotels maui hawaii nothing has changed. We ve always been dependent on the Russians to keep our crew at the ISS, since the Shuttle could only stay in space for two weeks max. The Shuttle could temporarily add people, hotels maui hawaii and it could exchange crew members, but without the Russians we could not keep the ISS occupied.
And as Rand points out, all we have to do is accelerate the CCDev program, and we could have two or more modern LEO transportation systems that carry more than twice what the Soyuz can, for the same price/seat or far less.
Why is it that former Apollo astronauts of whom we haven t heard in about 40 years or so suddenly are so adamant about a plan for HSF? Where were these people in 2004? Where were they when Griffin took over and pretty much ruined all the intents of the VSE? Why are they so bent on discrediting a president that actually tried to correct hotels maui hawaii an ongoing financial catastrophe? Why are they so hell bent against commercial firms, US commercial firms accessing space?
I would love for a market to open up that could fund a major commercial manned space market, independent of NASA. Something along the lines of a He 3 breakthrough, or a very low-cost hotels maui hawaii 100% reusable crew launch technology.
However, situations being what they are, taxpayers are going to be paying almost all of the bills. And while that is the case, spaceflight hardware and services hotels maui hawaii should be tailored to the requirements of NASA and DOD. NASA missions should not be required to be shoe-horned into the limited capabilities of whatever happens to catch the momentary fancy of a few newspace hotels maui hawaii startups
"billions of dollars to a group of companies – most devoid of experience in manned hotels maui hawaii space vehicles". "We don't believe that a private market capable of supporting a low-earth orbit system, independent of government, exists in the near-term. If it did, it wouldn't need government support," they write, concluding that "Space exploration hotels maui hawaii is likely hotels maui hawaii to continue to be a government-sponsored mission for the foreseeable hotels maui hawaii future –
Rand, rockets to nowhere is certainly an apt phrase for orbital hotels maui hawaii HSF, but it s important to observe that the original Bridge to Nowhere in Alaska would still have been a boondoggle if it was done under a fixed price commercial contract with the window dressing that the contractor would get to own the bridge and charge tolls to the scarce private hotels maui hawaii travelers hotels maui hawaii to nowhere. The result would still have been that most of the contractors revenues would come from the government contract, not from anything resembling a free market, and the taxpayers would quite disproportionately come out the losers.
The case of orbital HSF is even worse: a reasonable estimate is that in the future hotels maui hawaii as in the past, 99% or more of the revenues will come from the NASA contracts, while less than 1% have or will from the tolls charged to private travelers to the nowhere.
Major Tom, there s no contradiction in what Olson is saying. He s pointing out what is obvious to everybody but hopeless daydreamers, namely that the only significant market for these commercial orbital HSF proposals is NASA itself.
hotels maui hawaii Of course, given that Olson is admitting there is no sustainable market for orbital HSF, and presumably he knows that the Cold War has long since become history, one does wonder what his justification for taxpayer funding for Celestial Pilgrimages
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