Our Perspective. We represent developers, owners and lenders. We have helped our clients as business

The latest insights are often helpful to navigate massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts ones course in business. To help us figure out what is happening to our hospitality industry, here is the latest -- a very informative presentation to The Lodging Conference in Phoenix, Arizona by Mark Woodworth , President of PKF Hospitality Research, mark.woodworth@PKFC.com or (404) 842-1150 x222) .
But Mark Woodworth and his colleagues at PKF think that housing prices must fall at least another 10% before we find a bottom to the housing market. Please note that this will represent a cumulative 30% decline from housing price highs in 2006-2007.
In this slide, Mark compares housing prices, home sales and housing starts now, for the projected massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts downturn, and compared to the cycles of the early 1990s and 1980s. Note that at least in housing, the current downturn is something like what we saw in the 1980s or 1990s, but actually a little worse.
The pain will not be felt equally everywhere. This next slide shows that the worst declines in housing prices will be on the two coasts. The worst areas are in purple (more than 30% housing price declines), followed by the red (20-30% declines) in California, Southern Nevada (Las Vegas), Arizona, and Southern Florida.
PKF is projecting that loan delinquencies will continue massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts to rise, but will peak shortly. As shown in the next slide, mortgage delinquencies for prime loans should peak in the Fourth Quarter 2008, followed by credit card debt in the First Quarter 2009, and home equity loans in the Second Quarter 2009.
Although the landscape will be littered with some of the reckless lenders and we will soon launch a remarkable $700 billion rescue plan, Mark Woodworth says that downturn will be very mild compared to prior recessions.
PKF believes that job losses are one of the best ways to measure the intensity of an economic downturn. It reflects the pain suffered by individuals out of work and are likely to make dramatic cutbacks in all expenditures.
Note that in the recession model (the green line), which PKF still believes to be the most likely scenario, the turnaround will start in the Fourth Quarter of 2008. But a weaker recovery could postpone the turnaround to the First Quarter 2009 or Second Quarter 2009.
The change in employment is important. There is a close correlation between total employment and lodging industry. As more jobs are created, businesses are expanding, people are traveling for business and leisure again, and consumer confidence and spending can again drive the economy.
Please note that all of this is projected without taking into consideration the Bailout Bill (the '' Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 "), because nobody knows what impact it will have and when. Hopefully, the Bailout will accelerate the recovery.
This is Jim Butler , author of www.HotelLawBlog.com and hotel lawyer, signing off. We've done more than $50 billion of hotel transactions and more than 100 hotel mixed-use deals in the last 5 years alone. Who's your hotel lawyer?
Hospitality Lawyer: $700 billion bailout bill is now law! Warren Buffett insights on (1) Why the Bailout Bill had to pass, (2) The key to making the bailout work, and (3) How the Treasury an make a profit.
Our Perspective. We represent developers, owners and lenders. We have helped our clients as business and legal advisors on more than $50 billion of hotel transactions, involving more than 1,000 properties all over the world. For more information, please contact Jim Butler at jbutler@jmbm.com or 310.201.3526 or go to www.HotelLawBlog.com .
Jim devotes 100% of his practice to hospitality, representing massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts hotel owners, developers and lenders. Jim leads JMBM's Global Hospitality Group® -- a team of 50 seasoned professionals with more than $50 billion of hotel transactional experience, involving more than 1,000 properties located around the globe. In the last 5 years alone, Jim and his team have assisted clients with more than 100 hotel mixed-use projects -- frequently integrated with energizing lifestyle elements.
Jim and his team are more than "just" great hotel lawyers. They are also hospitality consultants and business advisors. They are deal makers. They can help find the right operator or capital provider. They know who to call and how to reach them.
Jim Butler is recognized as one of the top hotel lawyers in the world. He devotes 100% of his practice to hospitality, representing hotel owners, massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts developers and lenders. Jim leads the Global Hospitality Group —a team of 50 seasoned professionals with more than $60 billion of hotel transactional experience, involving more than 1,300 properties located around the globe.
Robert Braun is a partner in JMBM's Corporate Department and a senior member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group -- a team of 50 seasoned professionals with more than $60 billion of hotel transactional experience, involving more than 1,300 properties located around the globe. Bob represents owners in both transactional and operational issues. He advises clients with respect to business formation, financing, mergers and acquisitions, venture capital financing, joint ventures and strategic partnerships. massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts He has represented hotel owners massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts in the negotiation of several hundred management agreements, as well as spa management and franchise agreements. Bob also advises hotel owners regarding telecommunications, software, internet, e-commerce, data processing and outsourcing massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts agreements. To read Bob's articles, go to www.HotelLawBlog.com and select massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts "Management Agreements." For more information, please contact Bob Braun at 310.785.5331 or rbraun@jmbm.com.
Marta Fernandez is a partner in JMBM's Employment and Labor Department and a senior member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group -- a team of 50 seasoned professionals with more than $60 billion of hotel transactional experience, involving more than 1,300 properties located around the globe. massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts As a management labor lawyer with more than 20 years of experience, Marta specializes in representing hospitality industry clients in all aspects of labor and employment including labor-management relations such as union prevention, collective bargaining for single as well as multi-employer bargaining units, neutrality agreements and defense of unfair labor practice massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts charges before the NLRB. She defends employers in administrative and litigation claims, such as employee claims of sexual harassment and discrimination and counsels clients in preventative strategies such as executive training, massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts arbitration enforcement, and policies and procedures. To read Marta's articles, go to www.HotelLawBlog.com and select "Labor & Employment." For more information, please contact Marta Fernandez at 310.201.3534 or at mfernandez@jmbm.com.
Guy Maisnik is a partner massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts in JMBM's Real Estate Department and a senior member of JMBM's Global Hospitality Group -- a team of 50 seasoned professionals with more than $60 billion of hotel transactional experience, involving more than 1,300 properties located around the globe. Guy's deep and broad transactional practice includes complex real estate finance and venture capital transactions, including project finance, commercial massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts finance, leveraged massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts leasing and real estate acquisitions. He assists clients with development, leasing and disposition, loan portfolio massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts acquisitions, loan and debt restructure, workouts and real estate exchanges. Go to www.HotelLawBlog.com for current information in these areas. For more information, please contact Guy Maisnik at 310.201.3588 or mgm@jmbm.com.
David Sudeck is of Counsel in JMBM's Real Estate Department and a senior member of JMBM's Global massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts Hospitality Group -- a team of 50 seasoned professionals with more than $60 billion of hotel transactional massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts experience, involving more than 1,300 properties located around the globe. David has significant experience in the vacation ownership arena, focusing on the formation and registration of condominiums, timeshares and fractional interest regimes. He negotiates hotel, spa and restaurant management agreements, and assists massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts client in the development, acquisition, sale and leasing of hotels, golf courses and restaurants. For David's take on current issues in the timeshare arena, go to www.HotelLawBlog.com and click on the topic, massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts "Timeshare." For more information, please contact David Sudeck at 310.201.3518 or dsudeck @jmbm.com.
Robert Kaplan is a partner in JMBM's Bankruptcy, Insolvency and Restructurings Group and a senior member of the Global Hospitality Group -- a team of 50 seasoned professionals with more than $60 billion of hotel transactional experience, involving more than 1,300 properties located around the globe. Bob represents lenders, special servicers, hard money lenders, community banks, national banking associations, distressed debt investors, and equity investors, positioning them for the best possible outcome by acting expeditiously to preserve value and increase cash flow. His industry experience and his knowledge of the current capital markets -- where distressed assets often include complex deal structures massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts and securitized loans -- allows him to bring creative massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts and effective strategies to the table. When aggressive litigation is the best strategy, he is a vigorous and effective advocate for his clients. Bob represented the securitized lender in the Chapter 11 bankruptcy case filed by the Clift Hotel in San Francisco, and in the subsequent negotiations and successful sale of the loan to a third party. The lender -- acting by and through GMAC Commercial Mortgage Corporation massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts as special servicer -- was the holder massachusetts rv and travel trailer sales massachusetts of a $60 million loan secured by a Deed of Trust on the Clift Hotel. He has also served as counsel to CapMark, J.E. Robert Company, Inc., AMRESCO Management Inc. and Midland Loan Servicer in their capacity as special servicers on troubled hotel loans in CMBS pools. For more information, contact Robert Kaplan at 415.984.9673 or rkaplan@jmbm.com.
Martin Orlick is a partner in JMBM's Real Estate Department and a senior memb