Two other waves are behind this one and an 1008 Low still over Africa could make its wet appearance

Well, we did need some rain but with it comes the mosquitoes and their growing problem. Always, keep something on your skin to protect from them. Lots of people down with illnesses from the daytime fliers and the sunrise and sunset group are far worst with the rains.
Light winds of about 8 kts with seas under 4 feet in the Sir Francis Drake Channel. Mostly sunny sky with some rain showing up north of us on Radar but looks like it will stay north for a bit this AM. Had just a very light couple of showers tour buses last evening with a great night over all. No other major weather events for the next couple of days according to present forecast.
WOW the airport is reporting 90 F with a heat Index of 105 and winds at 16 MPH with winds expected to be as high as 30 mph over the next few days. Radar shows a few small rain cells moving toward us but chance of seeing something is only 20% today and tonight but 60% Thursday then 40 to 50% over the weekend with those increased winds. Invest 97L has lost its name but a mob of heavy weather still shows up on radar and sat s so these winds could turn into something as they get close or past us.
Today as I looked out across the Sir Francis Drake channel I had a hard time making tour buses out the islands due to haze. Checked the sat photos and Yes we have dust once again. Not a thick and wide layer but none the less we have it over us in a narrow band for now but it looks to grow. We still have large gaps between us and the never ending line of puff balls now coming off Africa. BUT... it could help.
Great looking AM today as was most of a Sunny Sunday. Even had the opportunity to get off the boat to hike about the Eastern part of the island over to Beef Island for a nice brunch tour buses at Loose Mongoose then back making it a nice change from the boat.
While the road construction detour is still in place, most traffic on Sunday was noted to bypass it and go direct to the Airport area. Not 2-way in many places but it can and was done but when workers return Monday it will probably be enforced. Work is not due to the passing storm but on going infrastructure improvements... which means it could last for years if not decades IE Hospital....
tour buses A wave will move through the islands as early as Tuesday through Wednesday bringing tour buses marginally higher winds and seas with increased chances of Thunder Storms. Winds up to 30 Mph are forecast tour buses by several tour buses services tour buses on Tuesday / Wed and seas of up to 7 feet are forecast tour buses for the period between Wed night and the weekend. This seems a bit high to me but we should not be too surprised since the area around us now is without the dust layer overcap and the counter tour buses winds are not doing their thing for the next several days or possibly week.
the But... This one Invest 97L is forecast to visit us possibly late in the weekend or early next week. It is presently in an area with higher Dry Dust which will help keep it from gaining as much power as it could and we hope it is enough as it will also run out of this area before it possibly reaches us. Remember the last one made TS just after passing us...
Two other waves are behind this one and an 1008 Low still over Africa could make its wet appearance in a week or so. Active is an understatement for the systems rolling off Africa for the upcoming weeks.
Several readers have requested Bar readings... well Barometers give uncorrected readings and can be misleading. Best to use those corrected at major sites but even many you normally get are actually uncorrected anyway. Here on the boat my reading is 1011.8 which is the same report as I received tour buses from a HF station on St John this AM. Normally tour buses they are a bit different as I am at sea level and they are a bit higher overlooking Coral Bay. These readings tour buses are a bit lower than the present weather would indicate but are very indicative of what forecast show is going to be heading our way within 48 hours which is one advantage tour buses of keeping a watch on the BAR even if it is not corrected... tour buses it will still show a trend in pressure which is very useful.
Well I hope most of you got your cisterns all topped up as I got my water tanks filled. I even had some excess tour buses I collected in extra containers I had around for some clean ups I plan over the next day or so. But even if you didn t fill up, you will probably have another chance coming soon.
One wave out about 45 west runs from about 25 North to 10 North and could be visiting us by mid week maybe as early as Tuesday and run through Thursday. Forecast for winds to be back up in the 17 to 23 knots area with seas running 5 to 6 feet. At this time rain chances are not very great but with the diminished dry air and lower dust with reduced shear winds this wave could grow faster than our recently departed wave. Many forecasters are looking a very large Low still over Africa that will move over to the Atlantic in the next few days. This one appears to have many characteristics of one that could become a named storm early in its life cycle. It needs to be watched until it shows its colors.
It appears from East End that other than a few problems with excess rain and minor wind damage, tour buses most of us did OK. Roads here appear to be near normal this AM but I think I ll just put off my long walks until maybe Sunday when we should get lots of Sun and low chance tour buses of rain. Not that I object to a bit of a shower while I hike around the island, it keeps me cool.
Got a message from Al in West End that they got lots of rain and the light show was great to watch over toward the USVI. Loved to the photos but don t have time to get them cut to size to post this AM. Info from St John on the radio this AM indicated they had 3 inches on the South side of the island and reports of 4 on the North face. I m not a fan of watching lightning.... not while I m on a boat!!!!!
The most recent plots once again place us about dead of the estimates........ It does not appear the local forecast have been updated yet..... but the BVI does have a small craft warning in place from today until Saturday night.
Chance of formation in 48 hours is 50% and 70% in 5 days but without regard to formation of a TS, Gusty winds and heavy rains are most probably over the Virgin Islands Friday and Saturday. The dry /air Sahara tour buses dust, is no longer present and the shear winds have also reduced AND the water is far warmer tour buses once this thing crossed the lower islands. Still no one has a good idea how much it will strengthen but it will and everyone needs to keep track of the developments.
As I was coming back from Road Town in a Bus I asked the driver if he was ready for the rain and winds on Friday... he and no one else on the bus had any idea invest 96L or any significant weather event was possible if not probably for the next 48 hours. This I have found over the past 5 years to be very typical of the area. Few people pay any attention to weather tour buses matters until they start to occur.
WindGURU for the BVI now shows a forecast of winds between 21 and 27 knots with gust between 22 and 33 knots with possibility of higher within tour buses squall s. Those are about my limit for sitting on my rear and getting about doing some higher level prep here on da boat.
While most plots place this potential TS below the BVI we will be once again on the North East side where the most adverse weather normally occurs. How close it gets to us from the South will be a huge factor in what we will see. We may not know more until Thursday mid day on the most likely paths and impact to the BVI.
Just behind 96L is another potential weather event which should reach a few days later than 96L. We are looking at a high potential for increased local winds and seas with increased chances of heaver tour buses rain and a potential for squalls passing over the area. At this time No Local advisories are in effect. This could change by tonight.
About mid day on the 19th a series of Thunder Storms moved over the southern off shore area of the BVI and some rain was observed over several of the islands. The Thunder was pronounced as where I was located it was rather clear and I was in a good bit of sunshine but I did get some stray raindrops on and off over the afternoon and night. Early this AM we did have a shower pass over and the dark clouds persisted for some time. Looks like we should get nice sun for at least part of today but I would think by Thursday we will see mostly cloudy tour buses sky with some rain. Friday could be more of a handful. Keep aware of what is going on locally.
These two systems are still a good distance from us now and in areas that we hope will hinder development but we do need to keep a close watch as the near BVI conditions could provide a better area for them to develop as they draw near. Both are given an under 30% chance of development in next 5 days.
We will be getting some increased tour buses winds and higher seas starting Thursday from the first wave which should provide more rain chances but as always things tour buses can change from forecast and all should maintain a close watch of weather conditions tour buses locally.
We did have a few showers over night but today has started out as a very nice bright day with a NE breeze that feels very nice. Well I m off to the store for some things to cook... thinking about unstuffed cabbage MMmmmm I hope.
94 L is no more but we will see what is left of it over the weekend in the form of increased clouds, a bit higher winds in the mid 20 s and increased chances of rain. That is much better than what it looked like days ago.
We have lots of haze, the islands across the Sir Francis Drake Channel have no detail to them more like darker cutouts. This is due to increased moisture and the dust from Africa. This is also one of the major factors in us not having 94L become a TS. This factor and the increased shear winds to the south east toward Africa are causing most of the blobs moving off Africa to fall apart before they can be a problem for us.
We should have a good chance of rain Saturday but local forecast show only minor amounts with increased winds whic